Adjusting timeframes

Thought:

1) I'm analyzing on timeframes that are weekly and daily. However, my trades seem to last less than a week. Perhaps i should consider using daily and hourly charts instead.
Weekly should be there to identify key turning points, but more as a watchout?

2) Use my daily analysis for the setup, and then hourly for entry and exit points?

The end of the bear?

Mid term trendlines for the SPX have been cracked since 23/3. Perhaps i should have taken that into more serious consideration. Till today, i've still been an active bear, when the market has moved into a phase of consolidation.

I shouldn't do anything until the market plays out where it's going.

Bullish:
If it takes out the previous high of 832, which would mark the next significant trendline resistance at 940-950.

Bearish:
If it cracks the 770 trendline instead of bouncing off it and resuming the bull.

FPL loss

Another loss, this time on FPL. This one was another example of bad trade management. My initial stop was 50cents away from my entry. The trade went in my favor for the day of entry, but the next day, it threatened to gap against my position, so i moved the stop.

The next day, the trade continued to go against me, albeit a small amount. On the third day of the trade, it went against me even more and that's when i woke up and exited at a near 2R loss.

With perfect 2020 hindsight, my mistakes these couple of days seems to be:
1) Trying to call the top. The SPX was falling for 2 days, so i thought it would be the resumption of the bear. However, i ignored the fact that volume was light, and that it didn't take out the killer one day 6% rally's low.

2) Bad trendline drawing. Looking back at the trade, the trendline was actually cracked, and the reaction against it wasn't as it should have been.

3) Forgetting PotP's rule of "you're wrong when you enter the trade. the market has to show you that you're right. otherwise, exit and look again"

Tighter rules

Another loss for CVX. Bought a CVX put at 6.50 when stock was at 66.60. Bought it back when stop was triggered at 67.90 at 5.50.

It's hard taking another loss, but that's the way it works. It got me thinking about my past trades that went well. The only thing i'm not incorporating from that are patterns. Right now i'm trading based on trendlines only with some confluence of RSI, Fib and Candlesticks.

I'm wondering if my setup isn't as optimum as it could be. Chart patterns provide a more solid structure to the trade.

New filter?

After bouncing some thoughts off a buddy of mine, it got me considering another potential filter for the stocks i trade.

In a nutshell, certain sectors/stocks will lead the index. So i should be looking to those leaders or laggards for my trades as they would likely be the ones that are 'moving independently' and should comply with proper analysis. The alternative are other stocks, the 75% that move 'with' the index, and would likely be wafting around.

Downtrading

I reviewed my trading activity since i started again this February. Prior to that, it was a year since i made my last trade.

Within a month, i've made about 10 trades already! Looking at the rate as well as the quality of trades i've taken, that's an area i can greatly improve.

My greatest lesson here i think is of Patience. I need to teach myself to sit more on the sidelines and only act when the timing is right.

- Wait for prices to approach trendlines
- Have a clearer perception of how the indices are trading (bull or bear)
- Always have at least 3 confluences (trendlines, candles, RSI, and/or Fib ratio)

Turning point

SPX is trading at 822.92 now. Prices have passed the fib retracement levels from February's swing of 61.8% (daily). On weekly fib retr, the levels will begin from january swing, and 61.8% will be at 837. This could be the next resistance point.

What will it take for me to turn bearish again?

1) Resistance at January 61.8% swing levels. 837ish
2) Down candlestick
3) Close below 772 (low point of 23/3/09)