Thought:
1) I'm analyzing on timeframes that are weekly and daily. However, my trades seem to last less than a week. Perhaps i should consider using daily and hourly charts instead.
Weekly should be there to identify key turning points, but more as a watchout?
2) Use my daily analysis for the setup, and then hourly for entry and exit points?
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
The end of the bear?
Mid term trendlines for the SPX have been cracked since 23/3. Perhaps i should have taken that into more serious consideration. Till today, i've still been an active bear, when the market has moved into a phase of consolidation.
I shouldn't do anything until the market plays out where it's going.
Bullish:
If it takes out the previous high of 832, which would mark the next significant trendline resistance at 940-950.
Bearish:
If it cracks the 770 trendline instead of bouncing off it and resuming the bull.
I shouldn't do anything until the market plays out where it's going.
Bullish:
If it takes out the previous high of 832, which would mark the next significant trendline resistance at 940-950.
Bearish:
If it cracks the 770 trendline instead of bouncing off it and resuming the bull.
FPL loss
Another loss, this time on FPL. This one was another example of bad trade management. My initial stop was 50cents away from my entry. The trade went in my favor for the day of entry, but the next day, it threatened to gap against my position, so i moved the stop.
The next day, the trade continued to go against me, albeit a small amount. On the third day of the trade, it went against me even more and that's when i woke up and exited at a near 2R loss.
With perfect 2020 hindsight, my mistakes these couple of days seems to be:
1) Trying to call the top. The SPX was falling for 2 days, so i thought it would be the resumption of the bear. However, i ignored the fact that volume was light, and that it didn't take out the killer one day 6% rally's low.
2) Bad trendline drawing. Looking back at the trade, the trendline was actually cracked, and the reaction against it wasn't as it should have been.
3) Forgetting PotP's rule of "you're wrong when you enter the trade. the market has to show you that you're right. otherwise, exit and look again"
The next day, the trade continued to go against me, albeit a small amount. On the third day of the trade, it went against me even more and that's when i woke up and exited at a near 2R loss.
With perfect 2020 hindsight, my mistakes these couple of days seems to be:
1) Trying to call the top. The SPX was falling for 2 days, so i thought it would be the resumption of the bear. However, i ignored the fact that volume was light, and that it didn't take out the killer one day 6% rally's low.
2) Bad trendline drawing. Looking back at the trade, the trendline was actually cracked, and the reaction against it wasn't as it should have been.
3) Forgetting PotP's rule of "you're wrong when you enter the trade. the market has to show you that you're right. otherwise, exit and look again"
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